Ne21.com 據(jù)IMS最新的季度報(bào)告顯示：中國(guó)二級(jí)晶硅組件廠商在2011年四季度的產(chǎn)能利用率降到了35%，甚至預(yù)計(jì)將在2012年一季度降到最低。由于庫(kù)存過剩和2012年疲軟的需求前景，很多廠商關(guān)閉了部分生產(chǎn)線，或者徹底停產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能利用率降到IMS所記錄過的最低值。這與一年前形成鮮明的對(duì)比，那時(shí)這些廠商的產(chǎn)能利用率高達(dá)80%。

2010年，隨著需求量的劇增，大多數(shù)中國(guó)二級(jí)廠商迅速擴(kuò)大他們的產(chǎn)能，并且在2011年繼續(xù)飛速擴(kuò)張產(chǎn)能。2010年的全球安裝率為160%，而2011年的安裝率卻只有25%，是迅速擴(kuò)張導(dǎo)致了產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過剩。因此，2012年的光伏組件廠商的總產(chǎn)能將接近市場(chǎng)實(shí)際需求量的兩倍。

IMS光伏市場(chǎng)分析師杰西卡金認(rèn)為：“從2010年到2011年初，對(duì)中國(guó)二級(jí)模塊的需求，得益于一級(jí)模塊和其他供應(yīng)商的OEM協(xié)議。”現(xiàn)在中國(guó)的一級(jí)模塊供應(yīng)商和其他供應(yīng)商的產(chǎn)能就可以滿足市場(chǎng)需求，對(duì)于OEM產(chǎn)品的需求也已經(jīng)下降了。高庫(kù)存導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的二級(jí)供應(yīng)商2011年每季度都在不斷降低出貨量，迫使供應(yīng)商減產(chǎn)并導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能利用率降至歷史低點(diǎn)。

低產(chǎn)能利用率也影響了光伏組件的價(jià)格。為了清理高庫(kù)存，中國(guó)的二級(jí)供應(yīng)商積極降低產(chǎn)品價(jià)格與均價(jià)，2011年四季度的價(jià)格比2010年四季度的價(jià)格降低了37%。盡管中國(guó)二級(jí)供應(yīng)商迅速降低價(jià)格，但根據(jù)IMS的《光伏組件價(jià)格的月度追蹤》，由于當(dāng)?shù)氐姆咒N商紛紛加入歐洲市場(chǎng)的年末大潮，分銷商的報(bào)價(jià)比12月的報(bào)價(jià)還高出16%。

IMS研究預(yù)測(cè)：由于降低了庫(kù)存，大多數(shù)供應(yīng)商停止了產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張并且還有一些供應(yīng)商退出了市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)二級(jí)供應(yīng)商的產(chǎn)能利用率將會(huì)在2012年二季度再次提高。

編譯 Ne21.com Sunnie

The average production capacity utilization rate of Chinese Tier 2 crystalline PV module manufacturers fell to just 35% in Q4’11 according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research and is forecast to fall even lower in Q1’12. As a result of high inventory levels and a weak outlook for demand in 2012, many suppliers closed down production lines, or suspended production entirely, resulting in utilization falling to the lowest level IMS Research has recorded. This is a sharp contrast to a year ago, when utilization rates of these suppliers hit 80% in Q4’10.

 

In 2010, most Chinese Tier 2 suppliers rapidly expanded their capacity as demand boomed, and these capacity expansions continued in 2011 with the expectation of another strong year. With global installations growing by ‘just’ 25% in 2011, compared to 160% in 2010, these rapid capacity expansions led to a severe over capacity. As a result, total PV module production capacity in 2012 will be nearly double the true market demand.

“During 2010 and early 2011, demand for Chinese Tier 2 modules had benefited from OEM supply agreements for Chinese Tier 1 and other suppliers,” commented Jessica Jin, PV Market Analyst at IMS Research. “As Chinese Tier 1 and other suppliers are now more able to meet demand for their products with their own production capacities, demand for OEM products has declined. Combined with high inventory levels, this has resulted in the shipments of Chinese Tier 2 suppliers declining each quarter in 2011, forcing suppliers to reduce production and resulting in record low utilization levels,” continued Jin.

Low utilization has also impacted on PV module prices. In an attempt to clear high inventory levels, Chinese Tier 2 suppliers have aggressively decreased their prices and the average price from Chinese Tier 2 suppliers in Q4’11 was 37% lower than in Q4’10. Despite the rapid decline of Chinese Tier 2 pricing, according to IMS Research’s Monthly PV Module Price Tracker, distributor pricing for these modules was 16% higher than supplier pricing in December, as local distributors capitalized on end-of-year rushes in major European markets.

IMS Research predicts that utilization of Chinese Tier 2 suppliers will begin to rise again in Q2’12, due to reduced inventory levels, most suppliers halting capacity expansions, and some suppliers exiting the market.